Measured Pandemic Intervention Quality Criteria (version 0.1)

Abstract

When it comes to pandemic related government interventions, an openly responsible position would reference the formulas being recommended or used to quantify the position in great detail. Like for example, determining which mandates are essential, when they should be enacted, and what should be the degree of their application.  For obvious reasons, it should be in everyone's interest to make sure that such delicate methodology would be thorough and at least correspond to basic quality criteria.

Measured Pandemic Intervention Quality Criteria 0.1 is a compliance standard designed to enumerate core basic requirements for the quality measurement of pandemic related government interventions. The criteria does not propose any specific ways to perform the calculations per say but rather offers a way to verify if methodologies take into account the enumerated essential variables and key categories of calculations, all for the purpose of avoiding common statistical type of mistakes.

* The enumerated criteria are a collaborative work in progress considered in the research phase until it hits the 1.0 version.

Measured Pandemic Intervention Quality Criteria (version 0.1)

Context Data: The raw data reflecting the overall situations relevant to a pandemic. These values have the purpose to help quantify the risks, dangers and damages of a pandemic, in the context of a determined time span and geographical area. Here are some key contextual variables identified as being essential to pandemic intervention models (some of the values depend on a calculation) :

• The total population count reflecting the geographical area in question
• The amount of infection test performed on the population reflecting a time span context
• The probable % accuracy of the virus test results 
• The relative likelihood of cases being reported 
• The profile of the persons linked to a case of infection (ex: age, preexisting health status, vaccination status, etc.)
• The condition status of the persons linked to a case of infection (ex: dead, in critical condition, recovering, asymptomatic, etc.)
• The probable % odds that the virus played a key role in the condition status of the person linked to a case of infection

Calculated Risk, Danger & Damage Values: The calculations estimating the risks, dangers and damages of a pandemic, quantified from the context data. The results will then be used as a basis to determine what levels of intervention might be necessary, and thus, they must initially estimate an outcome in the absence of the mandates being considered, justified or audited. A key risk value identified as being essential when creating pandemic intervention models is:

• The number of additional estimated deaths that the virus would play a key role in the absence of the mandates in question, presented on a spectrum of quantified probability

Calculated Effect of Interventions: The calculations reflecting the estimated effect of each potential government intervention being considered, justified or audited. In other words, formulas designed to adjust the calculated risk, danger & damage set of values. Categories of formulas identified as being essential when creating pandemic intervention models are:

• Formulas that determine how specific mandates related to vaccines, vaccine passports, lockdowns, masks, social distancing, cancelling medical appointments, etc. would lower the estimated amount of additional deaths explicitly linked to the pandemic. (One formula per specific mandate)
• Formulas that determine how education and campaigns encouraging the population to follow the things proposed above would lower the estimated amount of additional deaths explicitly linked to the pandemic. (One formula per specific recommendation)
• Formulas that determine how specific mandates have consequences related to the economy, mental health and the moral of the population pertaining to the balance of their values of both social responsibility relative to their values of accepting some risks.

The Proposed Set of Interventions and their Results: The proposed set of  interventions selected from the listing of potential options above, and their total net effect on the initial risk, danger & damage set of values.